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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to KC 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill to KC 18 for 3 yards (27-N.Hairston).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP