Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(6:04) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-N.Goode, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by IND-14-Z.Pascal at KC -2. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model