4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to IND 38 for 2 yards (53-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.48 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model