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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at IND 38 for -5 yards (96-D.Autry). PENALTY on IND-96-D.Autry, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model