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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 2-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.33 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model