Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

(10:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to KC 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 38 for 4 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.96 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model