4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 80-C.Rogers to KC 29 for 12 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model