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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle to IND 36 for 11 yards (35-P.Desir).

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.20 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model