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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 16

New England Patriots 35 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 26-S.Michel left tackle to LAC 9 for 7 yards (23-R.Jenkins; 51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.19 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model