4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2019-01-13 · 13:05 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🥶 Cold Spread 4.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

LAC
32.7%
NE
67.3%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NE on 7 more days rest than LAC
  • NE defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.013 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.173 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.198 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

LAC

Brandon Facyson CB Questionable Concussion
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Knee
Derek Watt RB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Wilson LB Questionable Concussion

NE

Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 28
–
NE 41

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:52 TD NE (7:52) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 26-S.Michel up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 05:03 TD LAC (5:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – NE 7
  • Q1 01:42 TD NE (1:42) 26-S.Michel right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – NE 13
  • Q2 12:22 TD NE (12:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 13th consecutive postseason game with a pass TD, ties Marino & P.Manning for 3rd-longest streak all-time. LAC 7 – NE 20
  • Q2 06:09 TD NE (6:09) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – NE 27
  • Q2 01:47 TD NE (1:47) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – NE 34
  • Q3 06:34 FG NE (6:34) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LAC 7 – NE 38
  • Q3 01:18 TD LAC (1:18) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – NE 38
  • Q4 12:27 FG NE (12:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. LAC 14 – NE 41
  • Q4 07:42 TD LAC (7:42) 68-T.Scott and 54-M.Ingram reported in as eligible. 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 88-V.Green for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – NE 41
  • Q4 01:04 TD LAC (1:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 85-A.Gates for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 28 – NE 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:34) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to NE 36, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman to NE 42 for 6 yards (29-J.Richards).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%

    (9:19) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to NE 13, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 23%

    (4:28) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to NE 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman to NE 21 for 9 yards (42-U.Nwosu; 48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:32) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to LAC 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LAC 35. New England challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to LAC 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-59-A.McClellan at LAC 35. 59-A.McClellan to LAC 35 for no gain (11-G.Davis).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:01) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NE 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman to NE 48 for 16 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:03) 5-D.Jones punts 34 yards to NE 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman to NE 33 for 1 yard (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (8:38) 26-S.Michel left tackle to LAC 9 for 7 yards (23-R.Jenkins; 51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (6:34) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (12:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 20 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:55) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NE 43, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 48 for 5 yards. Penalty on NE-31-J.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 46%

    (9:48) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 41%

    (5:13) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to LAC 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 16 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 57%

    (3:06) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates pushed ob at LAC 34 for 14 yards (23-P.Chung) [94-A.Clayborn].