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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 43

New England Patriots 41 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.82 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP