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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 39

New England Patriots 41 – Los Angeles Chargers 22

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP