Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 22 – New England Patriots 41

(2:43) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates pushed ob at LAC 34 for 14 yards (23-P.Chung) [94-A.Clayborn].

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.04 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -2.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model