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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(:34) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to NE 36, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Edelman to NE 42 for 6 yards (29-J.Richards).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model