Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to PHI 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.08 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model