Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.299 vs Nick Foles (PHI) +0.137 EPA/dropback (NO starting Drew Brees in place of Teddy Bridgewater)
- NO on 7 more days rest than PHI
- NO defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- PHI offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 19
PHI
NO
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:49 TD PHI (10:49) 9-N.Foles pass deep left to 80-J.Matthews for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Okafor]. Pass 30, YAC 7 PHI 6 – NO 0
- Q1 04:39 TD PHI (4:39) 9-N.Foles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NO 0
- Q2 07:28 TD NO (7:28) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 18-K.Kirkwood for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 PHI 14 – NO 6
- Q2 00:11 FG NO (:11) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. PHI 14 – NO 10
- Q3 01:44 TD NO (1:44) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 PHI 14 – NO 16
- Q4 10:32 FG NO (10:32) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. PHI 14 – NO 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:58) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to PHI 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
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Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 70Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(11:51) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill up the middle to NO 34 for 4 yards (77-M.Bennett). PHI-91-F.Cox was injured during the play.
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Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%
(7:28) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 18-K.Kirkwood for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0
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Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:42) 1-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to NO 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 20 for 8 yards (37-T.Sullivan).
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Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to PHI 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(1:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to NO 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-T.Lewis ran ob at NO 26 for 15 yards (88-D.Goedert; 50-L.Reynolds). PENALTY on NO-31-C.Banjo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at NO 11.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(13:22) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to NO 15, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 30 for 15 yards (47-N.Gerry). PENALTY on NO-42-Z.Line, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 15.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:06) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NO 17, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis. PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill was injured during the play.
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Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%
(10:32) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(8:45) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NO 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.
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Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 71%
(3:03) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.