Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 1-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to NO 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-T.Lewis ran ob at NO 26 for 15 yards (88-D.Goedert; 50-L.Reynolds). PENALTY on NO-31-C.Banjo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at NO 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model