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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NO 17, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis. PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model