Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(9:58) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to PHI 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model