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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.65 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model