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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 91

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NE 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.56 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 91, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.26 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 48, worth -2.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model