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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-02-03 · 18:30 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

NE
63.6%
LA
36.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NE offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NE: Jared Goff (LA) +0.102 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.201 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 25
–
LA 22
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

NE

No players on the report.

LA

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 13
–
LA 3

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:33 FG NE (10:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – LA 0
  • Q3 02:15 FG LA (2:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. NE 3 – LA 3
  • Q4 07:03 TD NE (7:03) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 26-S.Michel left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – LA 3
  • Q4 01:16 FG NE (1:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – LA 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NE 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-J.Edelman to NE 12 for -5 yards (50-S.Ebukam).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%

    (5:39) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 39%

    (3:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 28 yards to NE 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 56%

    (:18) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to LA 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NE 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (10:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%

    (7:59) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to NE 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-J.Edelman ran ob at NE 17 for 7 yards (82-J.Mundt).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:24) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to LA 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 35 for 13 yards (53-K.Van Noy). PENALTY on NE-59-A.McClellan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 35.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 16 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to NE 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-59-M.Kiser.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 75%

    (1:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Gronkowski (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to NE 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-11-K.Hodge.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NE 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 30%

    (10:14) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to LA 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to NE 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields. Record for longest punt in Super Bowl history. Previous was 64 yards by Ryan Allen in Super Bowl XLIX.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:41) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to LA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Natson to LA 23 for -1 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 68%

    (2:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 46%

    (14:57) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to LA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-49-J.Cardona.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 87%

    (1:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.