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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 24

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.48 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model