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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 75

New England Patriots 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to LA 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 35 for 13 yards (53-K.Van Noy). PENALTY on NE-59-A.McClellan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP