Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 3

(4:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to NE 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-59-M.Kiser.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.15 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model