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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 32

New England Patriots 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Gronkowski (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.43 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model