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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to NE 2, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-11-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.18 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -2.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model