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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NE 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model