4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 51

New England Patriots 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to LA 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP