4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 94

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to NE 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields. Record for longest punt in Super Bowl history. Previous was 64 yards by Ryan Allen in Super Bowl XLIX.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.31 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 94, worth -5.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.82 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model