Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 66

New England Patriots 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(6:41) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to LA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Natson to LA 23 for -1 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.87 EP
53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model