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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 28

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.13 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model