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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 40

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(:18) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to LA 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.25 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.87 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.69 EP
PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP