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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 50-E.Wilson, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at ATL 21. 50-E.Wilson to ATL 21 for no gain (41-S.Neasman).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP