Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIN offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- QB edge to ATL: Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.047 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.163 EPA/dropback
- MIN defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- ATL defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
ATL
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:57 TD MIN (11:57) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-G.Jarrett]. ATL 0 – MIN 6
- Q1 08:28 TD MIN (8:28) 33-D.Cook left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – MIN 13
- Q2 04:42 TD MIN (4:42) 78-D.Dozier reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – MIN 20
- Q3 00:34 TD MIN (:34) 33-D.Cook up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – MIN 27
- Q4 09:25 TD ATL (9:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – MIN 28
- Q4 01:09 TD ATL (1:09) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 12 – MIN 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 60%
(12:59) 5-M.Bosher punt is BLOCKED by 50-E.Wilson, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at ATL 21. 50-E.Wilson to ATL 21 for no gain (41-S.Neasman).
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 19 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 55%
(2:38) 5-M.Bosher punts 33 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 20 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(12:33) 2-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to ATL 17, Center-58-A.Cutting. 38-K.Barner to ATL 28 for 11 yards (27-J.Kearse; 50-E.Wilson).
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:49) 2-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to ATL 33, Center-58-A.Cutting. 38-K.Barner to ATL 45 for 12 yards (40-K.Brothers).
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 28%
(10:56) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to ATL 10, Center-58-A.Cutting. 38-K.Barner to ATL 15 for 5 yards (38-K.Boyd).
-
Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to MIN 25, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(12:47) 2-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to ATL 16, Center-58-A.Cutting. 38-K.Barner to ATL 34 for 18 yards (40-K.Brothers).
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%
(9:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 56 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:39) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to ATL 14, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-30-C.Ham. PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 14.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 23 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 88%
(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones to MIN 18 for 5 yards (27-J.Kearse).