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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to ATL 10, Center-58-A.Cutting. 38-K.Barner to ATL 15 for 5 yards (38-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP