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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 2-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to ATL 16, Center-58-A.Cutting. 38-K.Barner to ATL 34 for 18 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model