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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model