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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to ATL 14, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-30-C.Ham. PENALTY on MIN-38-K.Boyd, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model