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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones to MIN 18 for 5 yards (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP