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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.37 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP