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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Monday 2019-09-09 · 19:10 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

HOU
40.5%
NO
59.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.239 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 23
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

HOU

Tytus Howard T Questionable Finger
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Ankle
Greg Mancz C Questionable Ankle

NO

Mario Edwards DE Out Hamstring
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Achilles
Craig Robertson LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 28
–
NO 30

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:19 TD HOU (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 09:27 FG NO (9:27) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. HOU 7 – NO 3
  • Q2 01:51 TD HOU (1:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 HOU 13 – NO 3
  • Q3 12:57 TD NO (12:57) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left guard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – NO 9
  • Q3 08:24 TD HOU (8:24) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – NO 10
  • Q3 02:43 TD NO (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 7-T.Hill for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0 HOU 21 – NO 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD NO (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 14, YAC 0 HOU 21 – NO 23
  • Q4 00:55 FG NO (:55) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. HOU 21 – NO 27
  • Q4 00:43 TD HOU (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 12-K.Stills for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [24-V.Bell]. Pass 32, YAC 5 HOU 27 – NO 27
  • Q4 00:02 FG NO (:02) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. HOU 28 – NO 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 44%

    (9:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:06) 8-T.Daniel punts 41 yards to NO 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Harris to HOU 49 for 15 yards (46-J.Weeks; 38-G.Howell).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (9:27) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to HOU 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%

    (:55) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.