Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 77

Houston Texans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(7:06) 8-T.Daniel punts 41 yards to NO 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Harris to HOU 49 for 15 yards (46-J.Weeks; 38-G.Howell).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.92 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model