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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 21
Houston Texans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0
What Actually Happened
(14:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.26 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.20 EP
- 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.72 EP
KICK
+0.59 EP
- 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.91 EP
- 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT
-1.14 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -1.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
