4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model