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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

KC
70.3%
JAX
29.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Nick Foles (JAX) -0.045 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.304 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 27
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

KC

Jordan Lucas S Questionable Back
Xavier Williams DT Questionable Illness

JAX

Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Hamstring
Josh Oliver TE Out Hamstring
Cam Robinson T Doubtful Knees
Marcell Dareus DT Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 40
–
JAX 26

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:36 TD KC (13:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 09:00 FG KC (9:00) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – JAX 0
  • Q1 05:31 TD JAX (5:31) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-D.Chark for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. KC 10 – JAX 6
  • Q1 02:45 TD KC (2:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – JAX 7
  • Q2 11:39 FG JAX (11:39) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 17 – JAX 10
  • Q2 07:59 FG KC (7:59) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 20 – JAX 10
  • Q2 04:25 FG JAX (4:25) 4-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. KC 20 – JAX 13
  • Q2 00:28 FG KC (:28) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 23 – JAX 13
  • Q3 02:28 TD KC (2:28) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 29 – JAX 13
  • Q4 11:02 TD KC (11:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 14-S.Watkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 36 – JAX 13
  • Q4 07:40 TD JAX (7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 12-D.Westbrook for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 37 – JAX 19
  • Q4 03:38 FG KC (3:38) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 40 – JAX 19
  • Q4 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 40 – JAX 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to KC 21, Center-46-M.Orzech. 10-T.Hill to KC 21 for no gain (29-J.Robinson).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 97%

    (9:00) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 91%

    (11:39) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (7:59) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (4:25) 4-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (:28) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to KC 33, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (5:34) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (3:38) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.