Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(11:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to KC 21, Center-46-M.Orzech. 10-T.Hill to KC 21 for no gain (29-J.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.15 EP
53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model