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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 27 for 14 yards (54-B.Hager; 51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.01 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP