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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

LA
44.4%
CAR
55.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 25
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LA

No players on the report.

CAR

Bruce Irvin DE Out Hamstring
Greg Little T Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 30
–
CAR 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:48 FG LA (13:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – CAR 0
  • Q2 12:50 TD LA (12:50) (No Huddle) 34-M.Brown up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – CAR 0
  • Q2 01:07 FG LA (1:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 13 – CAR 0
  • Q2 00:02 FG CAR (:02) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. LA 13 – CAR 3
  • Q3 11:56 FG LA (11:56) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 16 – CAR 3
  • Q3 08:31 TD CAR (8:31) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Direct snap to McCaffrey LA 16 – CAR 9
  • Q3 02:54 TD LA (2:54) (No Huddle) 34-M.Brown left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 22 – CAR 10
  • Q3 00:16 FG CAR (:16) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. LA 23 – CAR 13
  • Q4 13:15 TD CAR (13:15) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – CAR 19
  • Q4 06:42 TD LA (6:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 29 – CAR 20
  • Q4 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) 65-D.Daley reported in as eligible. 40-A.Armah up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – CAR 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 50%

    (7:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 7 yards to CAR 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 71 yards to CAR 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 25 for 16 yards (20-T.Hill; 34-M.Brown).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 13 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 67%

    (:47) 4-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%

    (13:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:43) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to LA 3, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-J.Natson to LA 6 for 3 yards (30-N.Jamerson). PENALTY on LA-50-S.Ebukam, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LA 6.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:27) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 27 for 14 yards (54-B.Hager; 51-T.Reeder).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:04) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to LA 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 60%

    (1:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (11:56) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 70%

    (:16) 4-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:45) 6-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 56-J.Carter, Center-44-J.McQuaide, RECOVERED by CAR-39-R.Bonnafon at LA 9. 39-R.Bonnafon to LA 5 for 4 yards (6-J.Hekker).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:43) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to LA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-J.Natson pushed ob at LA 43 for 16 yards (56-J.Carter).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 88%

    (4:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.