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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to LA 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model